The Cabinet Confirmation Scoreboard: 14 Down, 10 to Go
By Henry Mallory , February 11, 2025
Topic: Institutional Analysis
The Spectacle
Fourteen of the president's 24 cabinet nominees have been confirmed. The average confirmation vote: 54–43. The average time from nomination to confirmation: 23 days. Both figures represent the continuation of a four-decade trend in which cabinet confirmations have evolved from ceremonial ratifications into partisan contests of negligible legislative consequence.
WHAT HAPPENED
- 14 of 24 cabinet nominees confirmed by mid-February 2025
- Average confirmation vote: 54–43 (compared to 97–2 average under George H.W. Bush)
- Two nominees withdrew before confirmation hearings
- One nominee was rejected by committee vote (first since John Tower in 1989)
- Remaining 10 nominees pending committee hearings or floor votes
THE MECHANISM
Cabinet confirmations have tracked the same polarization curve as every other Senate function. In 1989, the average confirmation vote was 97–2. In 2001, it was 87–6. In 2009, 78–16. In 2017, 56–42. In 2025, 54–43. The trend line is deterministic: as partisan sorting increases, the number of cross-party votes decreases, regardless of nominee quality.
The confirmation hearing has become a staged negotiation in which neither side negotiates. The majority has the votes; the minority has the cameras. The nominees say nothing of substance because substance can only reduce their vote count. The senators ask questions designed to produce clips, not answers. The entire process could be replaced by a written survey and a party-line vote, which is functionally what it already is.
THE CROWD'S REWARD
The president gets a cabinet. The opposition gets to register disapproval. The nominees get to spend $40,000–$100,000 on legal preparation for hearings that last one day. The public gets the reassuring spectacle of accountability without its substance.
POLLERBULL SIGNAL
- What moves odds: Cabinet confirmations do not enter electoral models. Cabinet performance enters models with a 6–12 month lag through issue-specific approval ratings. The only immediate electoral impact occurs when a nominee is rejected or withdraws, which produces a 48-hour news cycle.
- What would falsify this: If a nominee's confirmation hearing produces information that shifts public opinion on a specific policy issue, the hearing has served its constitutional function. This has not occurred since the Clarence Thomas hearings in 1991.