The Continuing Resolution: America's Permanent Temporary Budget

The federal government is operating under its 48th continuing resolution since 2010. The CR expires March 14. Congress will either pass another CR, shut down the government, or — in the least probable scenario — actually pass appropriations bills. The betting markets give these outcomes approximately 65%, 15%, and 20% probabilities, respectively.

WHAT HAPPENED

• Current continuing resolution (CR) expires March 14, 2025
• This is the 48th CR since fiscal year 2010
• The federal government has operated under a full-year appropriations bill for exactly 4 of the last 15 fiscal years
• Estimated cost of CRs to federal agencies: $12–18 billion annually in planning inefficiencies, delayed procurements, and inability to start new programs
• House and Senate have passed 0 of 12 individual appropriations bills for FY2025

THE MECHANISM

A continuing resolution is a confession of legislative failure dressed up as responsible governance. It funds the government at the previous year's levels, preventing a shutdown while ensuring that no new priorities can be funded, no obsolete programs can be eliminated, and no strategic planning can occur. It is the budgetary equivalent of driving a car by staring exclusively in the rearview mirror.

The CR has become the default operating mode of the federal government because passing appropriations bills requires a functional legislative process, and the legislative process has been non-functional since approximately 2011. The 12 individual appropriations bills require committee markups, floor amendments, conference committees, and presidential signatures. The CR requires only that Congress agree to continue whatever it was already doing, which is the only thing Congress can reliably agree on.

THE FISCAL REALITY

CRs do not save money. They waste it. The Government Accountability Office estimates that CR-related inefficiencies cost federal agencies $12–18 billion annually. Agencies cannot sign multi-year contracts at favorable rates, cannot begin new construction projects on schedule, and cannot hire for positions that may not exist after the CR expires. The military is particularly affected: the Department of Defense estimates that each month under a CR costs $7 billion in procurement delays and suboptimal contracting.

POLLERBULL SIGNAL

• What moves odds: CRs do not directly affect electoral models. Government shutdowns do — each shutdown day shifts generic ballot numbers by approximately 0.1 points against the party perceived as responsible. The current setup suggests Republican leadership would bear the attribution.
• What would falsify this: If Congress passes all 12 appropriations bills for FY2026 before the fiscal year begins (October 1, 2025), the CR pattern has been broken. Historical probability: approximately 3%.