The Governor Races 2026: 36 States, 12 That Matter
By Charles Whitcombe , March 12, 2025
Topic: Electoral Analysis
Thirty-six states hold gubernatorial elections in 2026. Twelve of them are competitive. The remaining 24 are as predetermined as the tides, which makes them useful primarily for measuring the magnitude of the national environment rather than the direction of it.
WHAT HAPPENED
- 36 gubernatorial elections scheduled for November 2026
- Current partisan split of governorships: 27 Republican, 23 Democratic
- Term-limited governors: 14 (8 Republican, 6 Democratic), creating open-seat races
- Competitive races (Cook Political Report, March 2025): AZ, WI, FL, PA, NV, IA, KS, NH, CA, NY, IL, CO
- Average gubernatorial race cost (2022): $38 million per competitive race
THE MECHANISM
Gubernatorial races are simultaneously the most important and most ignored elections in American politics. Governors control redistricting vetoes, election administration, National Guard deployments, and state budgets that collectively exceed $2.4 trillion. They also receive approximately one-tenth the media coverage of Senate races and one-hundredth the coverage of presidential races, despite their policy impact being orders of magnitude larger at the state level.
The 12 competitive races can be categorized into three groups:
Toss-ups (AZ, WI, PA, NV): States with recent partisan oscillation, competitive voter registration, and no dominant party infrastructure. These races will be determined by candidate quality and national environment.
Lean competitive (FL, IA, KS, NH): States with slight structural advantages for one party that can be overcome by strong candidates or favorable national conditions. Florida's inclusion is notable — DeSantis's term limit creates an open seat in a state that has trended Republican but retains a competitive infrastructure.
Watch list (CA, NY, IL, CO): Traditionally safe Democratic states where Republican candidates could be competitive if the national environment produces a significant wave. Probability of Republican victories: 5–15% individually.
POLLERBULL SIGNAL
- What moves odds: Governor races enter our House forecast model indirectly through state-level enthusiasm metrics. A competitive governor race increases total voter turnout by 2–4 points, which affects down-ballot House and Senate races.
- What would falsify this: If Republicans win in any of the "watch list" states, the national environment has produced a wave comparable to 2010, which would also imply catastrophic Democratic House losses.